Elon Musk: "They Are Lying"｜馬斯克：“他們撒謊”

Elon Musk: "They Are Lying"｜馬斯克：“他們撒謊” New SciTech 新科技 84.5K subscribers Join Subscribe 906 Share Thanks Clip Save 57,030 views Jan 10, 2025 Elon Musk's candid interview conversation: on China, aliens, politics, war, artificial intelligence, physics, and human nature. (Except for the part about China, the rest is a cut version) 伊隆馬斯克的率直採訪談話：談中國、外星人、政治、戰爭、人工智慧、物理、與人性。（除了關於中國部份，其它部份爲縮減版） Transcript Follow along using the transcript. Show transcript New SciTech 新科技 84.5K subscribers Videos About 179 Comments rongmaw lin Add a comment... @jobjen1200 2 weeks ago 令人深思的訪談，感謝提供中英文翻譯！ 18 Reply @XiaoGeGai 12 days ago (edited) 👍 very impressive, again, with how Elon Musk look at things, reasoning from fundamental principles 7 Reply @winglaileung 8 days ago 要给馬斯克，聰明人，自由表達他的意見，包括觀感，及台灣現實的定 位。他有許多企業在大陆，又常旅遊如秦，兵馬俑博物館，有歷史觀。他對大陆認識之深，遠超很多讀錯教科書的台灣青年。 9 Reply @oaksue1901 2 weeks ago 人类应该有责任保护马斯克这样的天才，他是超脱一般人的超人❤ 27 Reply 5 replies @XingYue稻宇 8 days ago 「人類從歷史中學到的唯一教訓，就是人類沒有從歷史中吸取任何教訓」-----黑格爾 2 Reply @kenyen8049 11 days ago 美國兼併夏威夷與阿拉斯加的核心理由是戰略地位考量、台灣對PROC而言也是一樣的。 換個角度思考、美國願意接受俄國或中國兼併夏威夷或阿拉斯加嗎？ 10 Reply @MrJL620 4 days ago 愛看他，聰明瘋狂卻有愛心。 Reply @SweetCoCohope 10 days ago 感谢把这些内容集中收集！ 1 Reply @user-user-user-user-user-888 11 days ago 意識傳輸是星際旅行的方式之一 地球上已經有很多外星意識了 3 Reply @user-bj7ts6pq9w 11 days ago 請樓主題提供片的原出處 ，因為現在ai太多假的，模仿得太真。 21 Reply 6 replies @kcgeorgechu4250 8 days ago As a businessmen, its not wise to participate in so much politics. What China to do is to keep strengthening the military force as well as the peoples well fair. Must work together with the intelligent people in Taiwan closely to achieve the unity of China 1 Reply @ww-pk6wb 11 days ago 中國要統一台灣，除了戰略位置非常重要外，另外就是中國內戰國民黨退守台灣佔據一偶，讓中國共產黨始終都沒有真正完成統一中國的偉業，所以對中國共產黨而言，台灣的收復有著無比非凡的意義。 8 Reply 5 replies @キエン-w7p 10 days ago I❤usa 1 Reply @sueli1967 11 days ago With the beautiful mountains, rivers, cities, and human civilization of the two countries, and the countries and peoples ravaged by war, everyone has the responsibility to maintain the existing beauty. Any idea of ​​starting a conflict is sinful and unimaginable. 1 Reply @flyingkitty3320 11 days ago 地球人被限制在肉體, 所以很多事物感受不到, 對於生命的認知也侷限 5 Reply @MrJL620 4 days ago 台灣是中華民國所在。小蝦米對大鯨魚，我不認為任何人了解台海關係和台平洋兩岸的複雜關係，我希望上一代過去，後來時代能和平。像美國人跟歐洲一樣。 Reply @Richme0630 8 days ago 真香～ Reply @Hillias1 9 days ago 他根本就是為了實現自己的目標不顧一切的人！ 2 Reply @waterchen8211 11 days ago 馬斯克說的中國是沒有馬列思想沒有共產黨詐騙的古老中國，他到底活在什麼年代？他真的是一位走時代尖端的科技人嗎？看到這影片另人驚訝這是他本人說的話，牛頭不對馬嘴! 15 Reply @robertli5575 11 days ago 正常狀態下，我們地球人終有一天也會變成別的進化較慢星球眼中的「外星人」，搞不好又「回到地球」 1 Reply @franklin9020 10 days ago 应该是从几个和Lex的长谈里面剪辑组合起来的, 加進了一些A I 生成的片段. Reply @zodiac0803 7 days ago 當馬斯克在講述美國在二戰後幫助他國重建，讓我感覺他有點心虛。 Reply @chinarepublic2100 9 days ago People’s republic of China Reply @douliu6 10 days ago 中國 不等於 中共 3 Reply @Szl6pe 11 days ago 中國不貪婪，不會侵略他國?剛剛好相反吧? 中共一強大就想著當老大，沒人比中共更貪婪了 42 Reply 8 replies @海鹦鹉 2 weeks ago 这个是拼凑的吧 8 Reply 4 replies @chendavid2972 11 days ago 這是不是ai作品？ 4 Reply @chinarepublic2100 9 days ago People’s republic of communist China land belongs to republic of china government under the republic of china constitution and Taiwan island is inside republic of China too 1 Reply @janne6888 13 days ago 馬斯克應該是有外星人基因😂 2 Reply @user-Life_is_a_Journey 10 days ago 如果你讓馬斯克選擇住那裏，你覺得他會選美國還是中國？ 1 Reply @林玉亭-o6f 11 days ago Taiwan is Taiwan, not belongs China 38 Reply 10 replies @Ale108.2 10 days ago 我不撐共，，， 但看到留言水平，，基本上沒救😂😂😂 2 Reply @hwangfongmain7326 11 days ago (edited) 太阳系所有行星重力都应该利用起来😅它们是我们的宇宙孤岛 Reply @ycl9268 13 days ago 10瓦和10兆瓦之間是第 12 個數量級的差距? 而不是第 6 個數量級? Reply @KellyWei-e7c 11 days ago 他說的那個文明是沒有馬克思主義的中華民族😂，中國人骨子裡的勤勞是任何人種都沒有的。 1 Reply @philipchang3341 10 days ago 馬斯克太主觀了 美國之所以不併吞其他的國家是他不想併吞人口過多的地方 以免造成這些地方的人口會造成投票的政治力量 如果有地廣人稀少的地方美國絕對不介意把它合併 中國自古以來並不是沒有侵略性 不然的話請你看看漢朝唐朝 如果你說這些併吞主要為了國家安全 那俄羅斯也可以這麼說 馬斯克的講話方式就是先找出一個結論 再找出適當理由來加強他的論點 1 Reply @yxileenaturalcrafts6391 3 days ago 我们已经不在乎台湾怎么看我们了 😊 Reply @snowfan666 11 days ago (edited) 中國幾千年內戰 仍沒學到教訓 持續至今 你不聽話就消滅你 美國一場內戰 足以奠定國家走向 相互包容 11 Reply 3 replies @hualuefu6350 11 days ago 他讲现在的中国 Reply @chinarepublic2100 9 days ago You think too much God create Earth so he will look after it for us Reply @gracechen5049 11 days ago 歷代中國一直都是貪婪的，對外勇於戰爭，東征西討北伐南侵，才會有現今廣大的領土。對內，则是專制極權奴役平民，勇於血腥內鬥，不停的改朝換代。20世紀初又引進馬列共產主義，利用現代高科技嚴控人民，壓榨人民；表面的現代建築建設是華而不實、過度建設來提高人均GDP，也是造成現在經濟危機的原因之一。只要共產極權制度不改，中共政權都永遠會是人類的災難。 4 Reply 3 replies @hualuefu6350 11 days ago 现在是做老大的问题？是现实推中国上位 不是让位 Reply @morggey 11 days ago 中國不貪婪不會入侵其他國家？如果這真的是他的看法他應該沒唸過中國古代的歷史 32 Reply 14 replies @chinarepublic2100 9 days ago 对中国的误解太大 中国人不想侵略但共产党想 1 Reply @dindongsing6047 11 days ago 他跟本不了解中國，如果中國武器好像美國一樣强，美國己滅😂🤣🤣🤣🤣 2 Reply @asian_girl401 6 days ago 马斯克是聪明的，想骗他，不容易！ Reply Transcript 0:10 you spoken honestly about the possibility of war between us and China in the long term if no diplomatic 0:16 solution is found for example on the question of Taiwan and one China policy right how do we avoid the trajectory 0:22 where these two super powers Clash uh well how do we avoid that and 0:29 they couldn't they couldn't get actually they saw it coming and they still could not avoid 0:34 it so you know at some point if there's if if one uh group one civilization or or 0:42 country or whatever um exceeds another sort of like if you 0:49 know the United States has been the biggest kid on the Block for since I think around 1890 from an economic 0:55 standpoint so the United States has been the econom most powerful economic engine 1:03 in the world longer than anyone's been alive 1:09 um and the foundation of war is economics 1:15 so now we have a situation in the case of china where the um the economy is 1:22 likely to be two perhaps three times larger than that of the US so imagine 1:28 you're the biggest kill on the Block for as long as anyone can remember and suddenly a kid comes along he's twice your 1:37 size so we see it coming yeah how is it possible to stop is there some let me 1:44 throw something out there just intermixing of cultures understanding there does seem to be a giant cultural 1:50 Gap in understanding of each other and you're an interesting case study because you are an American obviously you've 1:56 done a lot of uh incredible manufactur here in the United States but you also work with 2:01 China I spent a lot of time in China and met with the leadership many times maybe a good question to ask is what are some 2:08 things about China that people don't understand positive just in the culture what's some interesting things that 2:13 you've learned about the Chinese well uh the the sheer number of 2:21 really smart hardworking people in China is um incredible uh there are believe 2:28 you say like how many smart hardworking people are there in China there's far more of them there than they are here I 2:34 think in my in my opinion um the uh and they've got a lot of 2:42 energy so I mean the architecture in China that's in recent years is far more 2:48 impressive than the US I mean the the train stations the buildings the high 2:53 speeded rail everything it's um really far more impressive than 3:00 what we have in the US I mean I recommend somebody just go to Shanghai and Beijing look at the buildings and go to 3:07 you know take the train from Beijing to Shion where you have the Terracotta Warriors um China's got incredible 3:13 history very long history and um you know I think arguably the in terms of 3:20 the use of language from from a written standpoint um sort of one of one of the 3:26 oldest Perhaps Perhaps the oldest written langage and and then China people write things 3:32 down so um now China um historically has always been with rare exception been 3:40 internally focused um they've not been inquisitive uh they've they fought each 3:46 other they been many many Civil Wars um in the Three Kingdoms War I believe they 3:52 lost about 70% of the population so and so the they've had 3:59 brutal internal Wars like civil wars that make the US Civil War 4:04 look small by comparison 4:10 um so I think it's important to appreciate that China is not 4:15 monolithic um we sort of think of like China as a sort of one entity of one 4:21 mind and this is definitely not the case um from what I've seen and I think most 4:28 people who understand China would agree people in China think about China 10 times more than they think about 4:34 anything outside of China so it's like 90% of their consideration is uh you 4:41 know are is is internal well isn't that a really positive thing when you're 4:46 talking about the collaboration and a future peace between superpowers when you're inward facing which is like 4:51 focusing on improving yourself versus focusing on yeah uh quote unquote 4:57 improving others through military might the good news the history of China suggests that China is not inquisitive 5:04 meaning they're not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries um now they do feel very strongly you know so 5:10 that's that's good I mean because a lot of a lot of very powerful countries have been inquisitive um the US is one of the 5:18 also one of the rare cases that has not been inquisitive like after World War II the us could have basically taken over 5:23 the world and any country like we got nukes nobody else got nukes we don't even have to lose soldiers uh 5:30 which country do you want and the United States could have taken over everything oh at well and it didn't um the United 5:37 States actually helped rebuild countries it helped rebuild Europe you it helped rebuild 5:43 Japan um this is very unusual behavior almost 5:48 unprecedented um um anyway so so so I think America has been uh while far from perfect uh 5:57 generally a benevolent Force um and uh we should always be self-critical 6:03 and uh try to be better um but um anyone 6:09 with half bra knows that so so I think there are in this way China and uh 6:15 United States are similar NE neither country has been inquisitive um in a significant way so 6:22 that's like a you know a shared principle I guess um now now China does feel very strongly about 6:30 Taiwan they've been very clear about that for a long time um you know from 6:35 their standpoint it's it's it would be like one of the states is is is you know 6:41 not there like like Hawaii or something like that but but more significant than Hawaii you know 6:48 um and Hawaii is pretty significant for us so um they view it as as really 6:56 the there's a fundamental part of China uh island of fosa not not Taiwan that is um 7:05 not part of China but should be and the only reason it hasn't been is because of the US Pacific 7:10 Fleet and is their economic power grows and is their military power grows the thing that they are clearly 7:19 saying uh is their interest will you know clearly be 7:25 materialized yes China has been very clear that um 7:30 they will incorporate Taiwan uh peacefully or uh militarily but that 7:38 they will incorporate it from their standpoint is 100% likely it's Wars 7:43 which are tragic and difficult on a on a local basis and then there are Wars which are civilization ending or has 7:51 that potential obviously Global ther nuclear warfare has high potential to end civilization where are the aliens 7:58 that's one of the like the Paradox question um a lot of people have asked 8:03 me if I've seen any evidence of aliens and I haven't which is kind of concerning because 8:09 then I think would I probably preferred at least have seen some archaeological evidence of aliens um to the best of my 8:16 knowledge there is no Pro I notare of any evidence of aliens the out there they're very 8:23 subtle we might just be the only Consciousness at least in the Galaxy um 8:30 and if if you look at say the history of Earth for believe the archaeological record Earth is about 4 and a half 8:36 billion years old civilization as measured from the first writing is only 8:41 about 5,000 years old we have to give some credit there to the ancient samarians who aren't around anymore I 8:47 think it was a archaic pre uniform was the first actual symbolic representation 8:53 but only about 5,000 years ago I think that's a good date for one 8:58 word to say civilization started that's 1 millionth of Earth's 9:05 existence so civilization has been around it's really a flash in the 9:11 pan so far um why did it take so long for you know 9:19 one half billion years um for the vast majority of the time 9:26 there was no life and and then there was archaic vac for a very long time and 9:32 then mitochondria get captured multicellular life um differentiation into plants and 9:40 animals life moving from the oceans to land mammals U higher brain 9:47 functions and the Sun is expanding slowly um 9:54 but it will it will overheat it will it will heat heat the Earth up it's some 10:00 point in the future um boil the oceans and and Earth will become like Venus 10:05 where no life let Life as we know it is impossible so if we do not become 10:11 multiplanetary and ultimately go beyond our solar system um 10:16 annihilation of all life on Earth is a certainty a 10:22 certainty um and it could be as little as on the galactic time scale uh uh half 10:30 a billion years you know long time by human standards but that's only 10% longer 10:37 than Earth has been around at all so if if life had taken 10% longer 10:43 to evolve on Earth it wouldn't exist at all if we are able to go out there and 10:49 explore other star systems that we there's a good chance we find a whole bunch of long Dead one planet 10:55 civilizations yeah that never made have pass to their home planet I me there are very EXP ation for the Paradox and one 11:01 is is the sort of they're these great filters which civilizations don't pass through and one of those great filters 11:08 is do you become a multiplet civilization or not and if you don't it's simply a matter of time before 11:14 something happens on your planet um you know either natural or 11:20 man-made that causes us to die out like the dinosaurs where are they 11:27 now that didn't have space I don't know look I think the smart move 11:33 is just you know this is the first time in the history of Earth that it's been possible for life to extend beyond Earth 11:41 um that window is open um now it may be 11:46 open for a long time or it may be open for a short time and it may be open now and then 11:53 never open again so I think the smart move here is to make life multiplanetary 11:58 while is possible to do so we don't want to be one of those lame One Planet civilizations that just dies out I think 12:04 it's helpful the tools of physics are very powerful and can be applied I think to almost any really any arena in life 12:11 it's it's really just a critical thinking or something important you need to reason with from first principles and 12:18 think about things in the limit One Direction or the other so um in the limit even at the CF 12:26 scale meaning even if you harness the entire power the sun you will still care about useful Compu 12:33 what so that's where I I think probably where things are headed from uh the 12:38 standpoint of AI is that we have a silicon shortage now that will 12:45 transition to a voltage Transformer shortage in about a year ironically 12:51 Transformers or Transformers you need you need Transformers to run Transformers we have 12:58 a sp con shortage today um a voltage Step Down Transformer shortage probably in about a year and 13:04 then just electricity shortages in general in about two years I I gave a speech for the sort of world Gathering 13:11 of utility companies electricity companies um and I I said look you really need to prepare for tribling of 13:17 electricity demand um because all transport is going to go electric with the ironic exception of 13:23 rockets and uh and and heating um will also go 13:29 electric um so energy usage right now is roughly one3 very rough terms 13 13:36 electricity one3 transport one3 heating um and so in order for everything to go 13:44 sustainable to go electric um you uh need to Triple electricity output so I 13:51 encourage the utilities to uh build more power plants and and 13:58 also to probably have well well not probably they should definitely buy more 14:03 batteries because the the grid currently is sized for real-time load which is kind of crazy because you know that 14:09 means you got to size for whatever the the peak electricity demand is like the worst second or the worst day of the year or you can have a brown out or 14:17 blackout and you had that crazy blackout for several days in in in Austin 14:22 um so uh because there's almost no buffering of energy in the credit 14:29 like if you've got a Hydro power plant you can buffer energy but otherwise um 14:35 it's all real time so with batteries you can you can produce energy at night and 14:44 use it during the day so you can buffer so I I I expect that there will 14:49 be very heavy usage of of batteries in the future because the peak to trough ratio 14:55 for power plants is anywhere from two to five you know so it's like lowest point 15:00 to highest point electrification or transport uh and and electric heating 15:06 will be much bigger than AI um but even for for AI you really have a growing 15:12 demand for electricity for electric vehicles and a growing demand for electricity for to run the computers for 15:19 AI and so this is obviously leading going lead to a electricity shortage it 15:24 will get solved just the question of how long it takes to solve it so at various points there's some some kind of limiting factor to progress um and with 15:33 regard to I'm saying right now the limiting factor is uh silicon chips um and that will we're going to then have 15:42 more chips than we can actually plug in and turn on um probably in about a year 15:48 um the the initial constraint being literally voltage step down Transformers 15:53 because you've got um power coming in at three 300,000 volts and it's got to step 15:59 all the way down eventually to around 7 volts so it's a very big amount 16:07 of you the volage step down is ganic um so and and the industry is not used to 16:14 Rapid growth well I mean I've been pushing for some kind of regulatory oversight for a long time I've been 16:20 somewhat of a Cassandra on the subject for over a decade um I think we want to 16:26 be very careful in how we develop AI 16:32 um it's it's a it's a great power and with great power comes great 16:37 responsibility um I think it it would be wise for us to have at least um an 16:43 objective third party who can be like a referee that can go in and understand 16:50 what the various leading players are doing with AI and even if there's no 16:55 enforcement ability they should they can at least voice 17:00 concerns um publicly um you know Jeff Hinton for 17:06 example left Google and he voiced strong concerns but now he's not at Google 17:11 anymore so who's going to voice the concerns so I think I think there's I I 17:18 I like I you know Tesla gets a lot of regulatory oversight on the automotive front I we're subject to I think over a 17:25 100 Regulatory Agencies domestically and internationally so so it's a lot um you could fill this room with the all the 17:31 regulations that Tesla has to adhere to for automotive um same is true in you know 17:38 for rockets and for um currently the limiting factor for 17:43 SpaceX for Starship launch is regulatory approval uh the fa has actually given their approval but we're waiting for 17:50 fish and wildlife to uh finish their analysis and give their approval that's why I posted I want to buy a fish 17:56 license I mean some of the things like that it's I feel like are so absurd that 18:03 I want to do like comedy sketch and Flash at the bottom this is all real this is actually what happened um you 18:10 know one of the things that was a bit of a challenge at one point is that they worried about uh a rocket hitting a 18:17 shock and um the ocean's very big and uh how often do you see shocks uh not that 18:24 often you know as a percentage of ocean surface area shocks basically Z and and 18:30 and so then then we said well how will we calculate the probability of telling a Shar and they're like we can't give 18:36 you that information because they're worried about shark hunt shark fin Hunters uh going and hunting sharks I 18:43 say well how are we supposed to we're on the horns of a dilemma then well there's another part of fishing Wildlife that 18:48 can can do this analysis I'm like well why don't you give them the data like we don't they don't we don't trust them 18:54 like excuse me they're literally in your department again this is actually what happened um and uh and and and can you 19:01 do an NDA or something eventually they managed to solve the internal quandry and indeed uh 19:08 the probability of Sting shock is essentially zero in order to run uh like 19:14 really deep intelligence you need a lot of compute so it's not like you know you can just fire up a PC in your basement 19:21 and be running AGI at least not yet you know Gro was trained on 19:27 8,000 A1 100s running at Peak efficiency 19:33 um and's going to get a lot better by the way we we'll be more than doubling our compute every couple months for the 19:40 next several months I think this samarit to open sourcing I think PS with a slight time 19:46 delay you know I don't know six six months even um I think I'm I'm generally in favor of 19:53 open sourcing like bias towards open sourcing um 19:59 I mean it is a concern to me that you know opening you know I was you know AR 20:05 I think I guess arguably the prime you know Prime move behind open AI 20:12 in the sense that it was created because of discussions that I had with Larry pagee um back when he and I were were 20:19 friends in s's house and I talk to about AI safety and and Larry did not care 20:24 about AI safety at least at the time he didn't um you know and at one point he called me a species for being prum and 20:31 I'm like well what team are you on Larry he still on team robot to be I'm 20:37 like okay so at the time you know uh Google Google had acquired deep mind 20:44 they had uh probably two-thirds of all AI res you know two3 of all the AI researchers in the world they had 20:51 basically infinite money and compute and the guy in charge 20:58 you know Larry pagee did not care about safety and even yelled at me um and and 21:05 called me a specious Pro human well I mean the really wild thing about the end training 21:10 is that it like it learns to read you can read science but we never taught it 21:15 to read so yeah we never taught it what we never 21:23 Tau it what a car was or what a person was or B cyclist 21:29 uh it learned what what all those things are what all the objects are on the 21:34 road um from video just from watching videos just like humans I mean humans 21:40 are photons in control controls out like the vast majority of information 21:46 reaching our brain is from our eyes um and you say well what's the output the 21:52 output is our motor signals to our you sort of fingers and mouth in order to 21:59 communicate um foron in controls out the same is 22:04 true of the car like our brain is very computer efficient very very energy efficient so 22:12 think of like what what is our brain able to do um you know there's only about 10 watts of higher brain function 22:19 not counting stuff that's just used to control our body um the thinking part of our brain is less than 10 watts um and 22:27 that 10 those 10 watts can still produce a much better novel than a 10 megawatt 22:33 GPU cluster there's a six order of magnitude difference there 22:39 um I mean the the ai's thus far gotten to where it is with bya Brute Force just 22:47 throwing massive amounts of compute and and massive amounts of power at it 22:53 so this is not where where it will end up um 22:59 you know in general with any given technology you first try to make it work and then you make it efficient so I think we'll find over 23:06 time that these models get smaller are able to 23:13 to produce uh sensible output with far less compute far less 23:19 power um Tesla is arguably ahead of the game on that front because um it has 23:26 we've just been forced to try to understand the world with a 100 23:32 watts of compute um and there're a bunch of sort 23:38 of fundamental functions that we kind of forgot to include so we have to run them a bunch of things in 23:43 emulation um we fix fix a bunch of those with Hardware 4 and then Hardware 5 will be even better 23:51 um but it does appear at this point uh 23:56 that the call be able to drive better than a human even with Hardware 3 and 24:02 100 wats of power and really who really optimize it could be 24:08 probably less than 5501 our AI Gro is modeled after the hedgeh is Guide to the 24:14 Galaxy uh which is one of my favorite books uh which is it's a book on philosophy disguises a book on humor um 24:23 and um I would say that is that forms the basis of My Philosophy uh which is that 24:30 we don't know the meaning of life but the more we can expand the scope and scale of 24:38 Consciousness digital and biological the more we are able to understand what questions to ask about 24:43 the answer that is the universe so I have a philosophy of curiosity well we are actually working 24:51 hard to have uh engineering math and physics answers that you can count on 24:58 um so for the other sort of AIS out there that these so-called large language 25:06 models um I've not found the uh engineering to be reliable um and the 25:14 hallucination it it unfortunately hallucinates Mo most when you least wanted to hallucinate yeah so when you 25:20 ask important diff difficult questions it that's where it tends to be confidently wrong um so we're really 25:28 trying hard to say okay how do we be as grounded as possible so you can count on the results 25:34 um Trace things back to physics first principles U mathematical logic um so 25:42 underlying the humor is an aspiration to adhere to the truth of the universe 25:49 as closely as possible so that's why you know you there's 25:54 always going to be some amount of error but we want to um as to be as truthful as possible about the 26:04 answers uh with acknowledged error um so that there was always you don't want to be confidently wrong 26:11 so not going to be right every time but you don't you want to minimize how often you're confidently uh wrong and then 26:18 like I said once you can count on the logic as being 26:23 um not violating physics then you can start to to build on that to create uh 26:29 inventions like invent new technologies but if if you can't if you 26:35 if you cannot count on the foundational physics being correct obviously the inventions 26:40 are simply wishful thinking you know imagination 26:45 land magic basically if an AI cannot figure out new physics um it's clearly 26:51 not equal to humans Al nor has surpass humans because humans have figured out new physics they've just you physics is 26:58 just understanding you know deepening one's insight into how reality works and 27:04 then um then than this engineering which is inventing things that have never 27:10 existed now the range of possibilities for engineering is far greater than for physics because you know once you figure 27:15 out the rules of the universe uh that's that's that you've discovered things that already existed but from that you 27:22 can then build Technologies with that are really almost Limitless and the uh variety and cap you 27:32 know it's like once you understand the rules of the game properly and we do with current physics we do at least at a 27:38 local level understand how physics works very well with our ability to predict things is incredibly good like quantum 27:45 mechanics is the degree to which quantum mechanics can predict outcomes is incredible um that was my that's my 27:53 hardest class in college by the way my my my senior quantum mechanics class was harder than all of my other classes put 27:59 together maybe an interesting answer to the question of determinism versus free will is that if we are in a 28:05 simulation the reason that the these higher beings would hold a simulation is to see what 28:11 happens so it's not um they don't know what happens uh otherwise they wouldn't hold 28:18 the simulation so when when humans create a simulation so it's SpaceX and Tesla we 28:25 create simulations all the time um especially for the rocket you you uh you 28:31 know you have to run a lot of simulations to understand what's going to happen because you can't really test the rocket until it goes to space and 28:39 you want it to work so you have to you have to simulate subsonic transonic hyp 28:45 supersonic Hypersonic um ascent and then coming back super high Heating and um orbital 28:54 Dynamics all this is going to be simulated so uh don't get very many kicks at the can but we run the simulations to see 29:01 what happens not if we knew what happens we wouldn't run the simulation so if if there's so whoever 29:07 created this existence um is they're running it because they don't 29:13 know what's going to happen not because they do ignorance is perhaps in my view the 29:19 Real Enemy to be countered that's the real hard part not you know fighting 29:24 other humans um but all All Creatures fight I mean the the the jungle is a you look at 29:30 the people think of of this nature as perhaps some sort of peaceful thing but this strictly my opinion of you know is 29:38 that uh the the goal of Hamas was to provoke 29:44 an overreaction from Israel um they obviously did not expect to uh you know have a military Victory um but they they 29:52 expect they really wanted to commit the worst atrocities that they could in order to Prov provoke the the 30:00 most aggressive response possible from Israel um and then leverage that 30:06 aggressive response to um rally Muslims 30:11 worldwide uh for the cause of uh Gaza and Palestine which they have succeeded 30:17 in doing um so the this the the 30:23 counterintuitive thing here I think that the the thing that I think should be done even though it is very difficult uh is that um I I would recommend that 30:31 Israel engage in the most cons conspicuous acts of kindness possible every part everything that is the actual 30:38 thing that would th the goal of homas one of the things that does concern me is that there are very few people alive 30:44 today who actually Vis really understand the horrors of War at least in the US I 30:50 mean obviously there people in on the front lines in Ukraine and Russia who understand just how terrible war is um 30:56 but how many people in the West understand it um you know my grandfather was in World War II uh he was severely 31:03 traumatized um mean he was there I think in for almost six years in the in East 31:09 North Africa and Italy uh all his friends were killed uh in front of him 31:14 and uh he would have died too um except they randomly gave some I guess IQ tests 31:20 or something and uh he scored very high um he was not an officer he was a I 31:26 think a Corporal or a sergeant or something like that um because he didn't finish High School um he had to drop out of high school 31:31 because his his his dad died and he had to work to support his um siblings um so 31:37 because he didn't graduate high school he was not eligible for the officer Corp um so you know he kind of got put 31:45 into the cannon fighter category basically um but then just randomly they 31:51 gave him this test he was transferred to British intelligence in London that's where he met my grandmother um 31:58 but uh he he had PTSD next level like next level I mean just didn't talk just 32:05 didn't talk and if you tried talking to him he'd just tell you to shut up and he wor a bunch of medals never never ragged 32:12 about once not even they hinted nothing I like found out about it because I his 32:17 military records were online that's a how I know so he would say like no no way in hell 32:25 do you want to do you want to do that again but how many people um he he obviously he died you know 20 years ago 32:31 or longer actually 30 years ago um how many people are alive that remember World War II not many I think 32:40 we shouldn't discount the possibility of nuclear war um it is a civilizational 32:45 threat um right now I could be wrong but I 32:52 think the the current probability of nuclear war is quite low um but there 32:58 are a lot of nukes pointed at us so and we have a lot of nukes pointed at other 33:03 people still there nobody's put their uh their guns 33:08 away the missiles are still in the silos there are Wars which are tragic and difficult on a on a local basis and then 33:15 there are Wars which are civilization ending or has that potential obviously Global th nuclear warfare has high 33:22 potential to end civilization perhap perhaps permanently but certainly you 33:27 know to severely uh wound and and perhaps 33:34 uh set back uh human progress by you know to the Stone Age or something I 33:40 don't know pretty bad um probably scientists and Engineers w't 33:48 be super popular after that as well they're like you got us into this mess 33:53 so generally I think we we obiously want to prioritize civilizational over things 33:59 that are um painful and tragic on on a local level but not 34:04 civilizational uh well I think that what what is likely to happen uh 34:10 which is really pretty much the the way it is is that um something very close to 34:17 the current lines uh will be how a ceasefire or 34:25 truce happens but you know you just have a situation right 34:30 now where whoever goes on the offensive um will suffer casualties at several times the rate of whoever's on the 34:36 defense um because you've got uh defense and death you got minefields uh trenches 34:42 anti-tank defenses um nobody has air superiority um because the the 34:48 anti-aircraft missiles are really far better than the the aircraft like there far more of them 34:54 um and uh so neither side has air superiority um tanks are basically death 35:00 traps um just slow moving and they're not immune to anti-tank weapons so you 35:07 you really just have longrange artillery um and uh infantry trenches it's World War 35:15 One all over again with drones you know throwing little drones some some drones there who 35:21 who whoever is you don't you don't you don't want to be trying to advance from either side because the probability of 35:27 dying is incredibly High um so in order to overcome 35:34 uh defense and depth trenches and minefields you really need a significant 35:40 local superiority in numbers um ideally combined arms where where you you do a 35:48 fast attack with aircraft a concentrated number of Tanks 35:53 um and a lot of people that's the only way you're going to punch through line and then do you got to punch through and 36:00 and and then not have reinforcements just kick you right out again I mean I I 36:07 really recommend people read uh World War I Warfare in 36:13 detail that's rough um I mean the sh number of people that 36:20 died there was mindboggling there a series of vectors you know basically P Prim whatever you 36:28 want to call them um but but sort of things that the system knows that you like 36:34 um like maybe there's like several hundred sort of vectors associated with each user account and then uh any post 36:42 in the system um whether it's video audio short post long post the the 36:50 reason I by the way want to move away from tweet is that you know people are posting like two three hour videos on 36:56 the site that's not a tweet like like tweet for two hours on do a tweet made 37:02 sense when it was like 140 characters of text because it's like a bunch of like 37:08 little birds tweeting um but when you've got long form content it's no longer a tweet yeah um so a movie is not a tweet 37:16 and like you know Apple for example posted like the entire episode of The Silo entire thing on our platform by the 37:24 way it was their number one social media thing ever in engagement of anything on 37:30 any platform ever so it was a great idea and by the way I I just learned about it afterwards I was like Hey wow they 37:36 posted an entire hourong episode of so no that's not a tweet you know this a video um but you 37:43 know like if let's say in the case of Apple posting like an entire episode of of this series pretty good series by the 37:50 way thiso um I watched it um so um 37:56 there's going to be a lot of disc discussion around it so you you've got a lot of context people commenting they like it they don't like it or they like 38:02 this or you know and and you can then populate the vector space based on the context of of all the comments around it 38:07 so even though it's a video uh there's a lot of information around it that that allows you to populate back to space of 38:14 that that hourong video um and you can obviously get more sophisticated by having the AI actually watch the movie 38:22 yeah right and tell you if you're gonna like the movie and then recommend based 38:29 on after it after air watches the movie just like a friend can tell you if a 38:34 friend knows you well a friend can recommend a movie and with high probability that you'll like 38:40 it advertising that is um if it's for a product or service that 38:46 you that you actually need when you need it it's it's content um and then even if 38:52 it's not something that you need when you need it if it's at least aesthetically pleasing and entertaining 38:57 you know it could be like a Coca-Cola ad like you know they they do they actually run a lot of great ads on the on the EX 39:03 system um and um McDonald's does too and and uh you know so they can do you can 39:09 do something that's like well this is this is just a cool thing um and um you 39:16 know so you're not basically the question is do you regret seeing it or not and if you don't regret seeing it 39:21 it's a win attention is big a big factor attention so that's why it's like it's it's is actually better to do things 39:29 that are uh long form on the system because it's it's basically telling up 39:35 how many user seconds you know users were interested in this thing for how many seconds so if 39:41 it's a really short thing well they will be less like if it's a link leading out 39:46 of the system which we're not opposed to at all it just is going to have fewer user seconds than if that article was 39:52 posted on the X platform never trust a cynic 39:58 the reason is that um cynics excuse their own bad behavior by saying 40:04 everyone does it because they're cynical so I always be it's a red flag 40:10 if someone's a cynic a true cynic if if somebody is cynical meaning that they 40:16 see bad behavior in everyone um it's easy for them to excuse their own bad 40:22 behavior by saying that well everyone does it it's not 40:29 true I most people are kind of medium good